It's not about the ingredients, but about how likely it is that making cookies means that someone also enjoys making cakes given the different effort involved and the different results.

Holy shit, meme. If this nonnie's account is true, this is the most ridiculous wank ever.

Also, nonnie, are you looking for a Bayesian analysis here?

The probability that people like to bake cakes if they also like to bake cookies is WAY higher than the baseline general-population probability for liking to bake cakes.